SEIR-Modell, R - rextester

SEIR-Modell

#!/usr/bin/env Rscript

# Epidemiologie SEIR Modell

library(data.table)

pEI <- 1/3 # probability to get infectuous after being expoesed
pIR <- 1/7 # probability to recover when infectuous

Tn <- 200 # Number of iterations (days)

Population <- 83200000 # Population at start

R0 <- 3 * pIR # Reproduction value at start (persons / day)

options ( digits = 4 )

SEIR <- data.table(
    S = c( Population - 1 ,rep(0,Tn-1))
  , E = c( 1 ,rep(0,Tn-1))
  , I = rep( 0 , Tn )
  , R = rep( 0 , Tn )
)

for  (i in 2:Tn) {

SEIR$R[i] <- SEIR$R[i-1] + SEIR$I[i-1] * pIR

SEIR$I[i] <- SEIR$I[i-1] * ( 1 - pIR ) + SEIR$E[i-1] * pEI 
    
    Infect <-  R0 * SEIR$S[i-1] / Population * SEIR$I[i-1]
    
    if (Infect > SEIR$S[i-1] ) { Infect = SEIR$S[i-1] }
  
    SEIR$E[i] <- SEIR$E[i-1] * ( 1 - pEI ) + Infect
    
    SEIR$S[i] <- SEIR$S[i-1] - Infect

}

plot(SEIR$S
    , type="l"
    , col = "blue"
    , xlab = "Tag"
    , ylab = "Anzahl"
    , xlim = c( 50, Tn)
    , ylim = c(0, Population)
    , main = "SEIR Modell"
    )
grid()

par ( new = TRUE )

plot(SEIR$E
    , type="l"
    , col = "orange"
    , xlab = ""
    , xlim = c( 50, Tn)
    , ylab = ""
    , ylim = c(0, Population)
    )

par ( new = TRUE )

plot(SEIR$I
    , type="l"
    , col = "red"
    , xlab = ""
    , xlim = c( 50, Tn)
    , ylab = ""
    , ylim = c(0, Population)
    )

par ( new = TRUE )

plot(SEIR$R
    , type="l"
    , col = "green"
    , xlab = ""
    , xlim = c( 50, Tn)
    , ylab = ""
    , ylim = c(0, Population)
    )


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